Italian Serie A

AC Milan vs Venezia prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

AC Milan vs Venezia (Serie A), 29/08/2026, finished 2-0: AC Milan won. Before the match Jarvis gave AC Milan 66%, the draw 21% and Venezia 13%; the actual result had a 66% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

AC Milan

66%

Draw

21%

Venezia

13%

Actual result: AC Milan 2 – 0 Venezia · AC Milan winJarvis gave this outcome: 66% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AC Milan, negative favours Venezia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (AC Milan - Venezia)+1.25

Expected total goals2.79

Expected goals AC Milan / Venezia2.02 / 0.77

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.1% / 52.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.2%

Over 2.5 goals 52.8%

Over 3.5 goals 30.5%

First half

First-half result (AC Milan / draw / Venezia)47.6% / 39.3% / 13.1%

A goal in the first half70.9%

Two or more in the first half36.2%

Half-time then full-time

AC Milan lead at half-time then AC Milan win43.3%

Level at half-time then AC Milan win20.6%

Level at half-time then draw13.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from AC Milan's side

AC Milan −2.031.5%

AC Milan −1.7536.6%

AC Milan −1.541.7%

AC Milan −1.2547.8%

AC Milan −1.053.8%

AC Milan −0.7559.9%

AC Milan −0.566.0%

AC Milan −0.2571.3%

AC Milan draw no bet (0.0)76.7%

AC Milan +0.2582.0%

AC Milan +0.587.3%

AC Milan +0.7589.5%

AC Milan +1.091.8%

AC Milan +1.596.2%

AC Milan +2.097.7%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

AC Milan win1.51

Draw4.70

Venezia win7.87

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.52.12

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

AC Milan wins by more than 1 goals42%

Venezia wins by more than 1 goals4%

Corners

Expected total corners9.4

6.5+ corners in the match46%

Cards

Expected total cards2.1

2.5+ cards in the match36%