Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Valencia
33%
Draw
30%
Real Sociedad
37%
Actual result: Valencia 2 – 3 Real Sociedad · Real Sociedad winJarvis gave this outcome: 37% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Valencia, negative favours Real Sociedad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Valencia - Real Sociedad)-0.09
Expected total goals2.54
Expected goals Valencia / Real Sociedad1.22 / 1.32
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.3% / 46.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.7%
Over 2.5 goals 46.6%
Over 3.5 goals 25.1%
First half
First-half result (Valencia / draw / Real Sociedad)25.6% / 46.0% / 28.4%
A goal in the first half66.7%
Two or more in the first half33.0%
Half-time then full-time
Real Sociedad lead at half-time then Real Sociedad win22.1%
Valencia lead at half-time then Valencia win19.2%
Level at half-time then draw19.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Valencia's side
Valencia −2.09.7%
Valencia −1.7512.2%
Valencia −1.514.6%
Valencia −1.2519.1%
Valencia −1.023.7%
Valencia −0.7528.2%
Valencia −0.532.7%
Valencia −0.2540.2%
Valencia draw no bet (0.0)47.8%
Valencia +0.2555.3%
Valencia +0.562.9%
Valencia +0.7567.8%
Valencia +1.072.7%
Valencia +1.582.5%
Valencia +2.088.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Valencia win3.06
Draw3.32
Real Sociedad win2.69
Over 2.52.15
Under 2.51.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Valencia wins by more than 1 goals15%
Real Sociedad wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards4.5
2.5+ cards in the match47%