Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Venezia
25%
Draw
28%
Lazio
47%
Actual result: Venezia 0 – 2 Lazio · Lazio winJarvis gave this outcome: 47% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Venezia, negative favours Lazio) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Venezia - Lazio)-0.50
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Venezia / Lazio1.13 / 1.63
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.0% / 44.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.8%
Over 2.5 goals 52.0%
Over 3.5 goals 29.8%
First half
First-half result (Venezia / draw / Lazio)21.0% / 43.7% / 35.2%
A goal in the first half69.6%
Two or more in the first half36.7%
Half-time then full-time
Lazio lead at half-time then Lazio win29.3%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Level at half-time then Lazio win16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Venezia's side
Venezia −2.06.7%
Venezia −1.758.5%
Venezia −1.510.3%
Venezia −1.2513.9%
Venezia −1.017.5%
Venezia −0.7521.1%
Venezia −0.524.7%
Venezia −0.2531.7%
Venezia draw no bet (0.0)38.6%
Venezia +0.2545.6%
Venezia +0.552.6%
Venezia +0.7558.0%
Venezia +1.063.4%
Venezia +1.574.2%
Venezia +2.081.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Venezia win4.05
Draw3.59
Lazio win2.11
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.08
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Venezia wins by more than 1 goals10%
Lazio wins by more than 1 goals26%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%