English Sky Bet Championship

Wrexham vs Birmingham prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Wrexham vs Birmingham (English Sky Bet Championship), 29/08/2026, finished 1-2: Birmingham won. Before the match Jarvis gave Wrexham 42%, the draw 30% and Birmingham 28%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Wrexham

42%

Draw

30%

Birmingham

28%

Actual result: Wrexham 1 – 2 Birmingham · Birmingham winJarvis gave this outcome: 28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Wrexham, negative favours Birmingham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Wrexham - Birmingham)+0.30

Expected total goals2.38

Expected goals Wrexham / Birmingham1.34 / 1.04

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.2% / 50.8%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 70.2%

Over 2.5 goals 42.6%

Over 3.5 goals 21.7%

First half

First-half result (Wrexham / draw / Birmingham)31.0% / 46.7% / 22.2%

A goal in the first half64.7%

Two or more in the first half30.1%

Half-time then full-time

Wrexham lead at half-time then Wrexham win25.2%

Level at half-time then draw19.7%

Level at half-time then Wrexham win15.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Wrexham's side

Wrexham −2.013.8%

Wrexham −1.7517.0%

Wrexham −1.520.2%

Wrexham −1.2525.7%

Wrexham −1.031.2%

Wrexham −0.7536.6%

Wrexham −0.542.1%

Wrexham −0.2549.7%

Wrexham draw no bet (0.0)57.2%

Wrexham +0.2564.7%

Wrexham +0.572.3%

Wrexham +0.7576.5%

Wrexham +1.080.7%

Wrexham +1.589.0%

Wrexham +2.092.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Wrexham win2.37

Draw3.31

Birmingham win3.61

Over 2.52.35

Under 2.51.74

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Wrexham wins by more than 1 goals20%

Birmingham wins by more than 1 goals11%

Corners

Expected total corners10.2

6.5+ corners in the match56%

Cards

Expected total cards2.8

2.5+ cards in the match54%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 29/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.