Brazilian Serie B

America MG vs Ponte Preta prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

America MG vs Ponte Preta (Brazilian Serie B), 31/08/2026, finished 2-0: America MG won. Before the match Jarvis gave America MG 86%, the draw 10% and Ponte Preta 4%; the actual result had a 86% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.4.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

America MG

86%

Draw

10%

Ponte Preta

Actual result: America MG 2 – 0 Ponte Preta · America MG winJarvis gave this outcome: 86% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours America MG, negative favours Ponte Preta) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (America MG - Ponte Preta)+2.43

Expected total goals3.39

Expected goals America MG / Ponte Preta2.91 / 0.48

Both teams to score (yes / no)35.9% / 64.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 85.2%

Over 2.5 goals 65.9%

Over 3.5 goals 44.0%

First half

First-half result (America MG / draw / Ponte Preta)65.8% / 28.2% / 6.0%

A goal in the first half78.3%

Two or more in the first half45.0%

Half-time then full-time

America MG lead at half-time then America MG win63.7%

Level at half-time then America MG win20.2%

Level at half-time then draw6.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from America MG's side

America MG −2.056.8%

America MG −1.7562.3%

America MG −1.567.9%

America MG −1.2572.5%

America MG −1.077.1%

America MG −0.7581.7%

America MG −0.586.3%

America MG −0.2588.8%

America MG draw no bet (0.0)91.3%

America MG +0.2593.8%

America MG +0.596.2%

America MG +0.7597.0%

America MG +1.097.8%

America MG +1.599.3%

America MG +2.099.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

America MG win1.16

Draw10.11

Ponte Preta win26.55

Over 2.51.52

Under 2.52.93

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

America MG wins by more than 1 goals68%

Ponte Preta wins by more than 1 goals1%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 31/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.