UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos prediction

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 12/08/2026, finished 1-2: Panathinaikos won. Before the match Jarvis gave CSKA 1948 Sofia 19%, the draw 27% and Panathinaikos 54%; the actual result had a 54% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.5.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

CSKA 1948 Sofia

19%

Draw

27%

Panathinaikos

54%

Actual result: CSKA 1948 Sofia 1 – 2 Panathinaikos · Panathinaikos winJarvis gave this outcome: 54% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours CSKA 1948 Sofia, negative favours Panathinaikos) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (CSKA 1948 Sofia - Panathinaikos)-0.75

Expected total goals2.48

Expected goals CSKA 1948 Sofia / Panathinaikos0.87 / 1.62

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.7% / 52.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 72.1%

Over 2.5 goals 45.2%

Over 3.5 goals 23.9%

First half

First-half result (CSKA 1948 Sofia / draw / Panathinaikos)16.8% / 44.6% / 38.6%

A goal in the first half66.3%

Two or more in the first half31.7%

Half-time then full-time

Panathinaikos lead at half-time then Panathinaikos win33.5%

Level at half-time then Panathinaikos win18.9%

Level at half-time then draw17.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from CSKA 1948 Sofia's side

CSKA 1948 Sofia −2.04.0%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −1.755.2%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −1.56.5%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −1.259.6%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −1.012.7%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −0.7515.8%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −0.518.9%

CSKA 1948 Sofia −0.2525.7%

CSKA 1948 Sofia draw no bet (0.0)32.5%

CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.2539.3%

CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.546.1%

CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.7552.2%

CSKA 1948 Sofia +1.058.2%

CSKA 1948 Sofia +1.570.4%

CSKA 1948 Sofia +2.078.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

CSKA 1948 Sofia win5.29

Draw3.67

Panathinaikos win1.86

Over 2.52.21

Under 2.51.83

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia wins by more than 1 goals6%

Panathinaikos wins by more than 1 goals30%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 12/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.