German Super Cup

Dortmund vs Bayern Munich prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Dortmund vs Bayern Munich (German Super Cup), 23/08/2026, finished 1-2: Bayern Munich won. Before the match Jarvis gave Dortmund 19%, the draw 22% and Bayern Munich 60%; the actual result had a 60% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.7.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Dortmund

19%

Draw

22%

Bayern Munich

60%

Actual result: Dortmund 1 – 2 Bayern Munich · Bayern Munich winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Dortmund, negative favours Bayern Munich) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Dortmund - Bayern Munich)-1.07

Expected total goals3.69

Expected goals Dortmund / Bayern Munich1.31 / 2.38

Both teams to score (yes / no)67.8% / 32.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 89.8%

Over 2.5 goals 71.3%

Over 3.5 goals 50.4%

First half

First-half result (Dortmund / draw / Bayern Munich)17.8% / 37.6% / 44.6%

A goal in the first half78.7%

Two or more in the first half51.7%

Half-time then full-time

Bayern Munich lead at half-time then Bayern Munich win39.1%

Level at half-time then Bayern Munich win18.1%

Level at half-time then draw12.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Dortmund's side

Dortmund −2.05.4%

Dortmund −1.756.8%

Dortmund −1.58.1%

Dortmund −1.2510.7%

Dortmund −1.013.3%

Dortmund −0.7515.9%

Dortmund −0.518.5%

Dortmund −0.2524.0%

Dortmund draw no bet (0.0)29.5%

Dortmund +0.2534.9%

Dortmund +0.540.4%

Dortmund +0.7545.4%

Dortmund +1.050.4%

Dortmund +1.560.4%

Dortmund +2.069.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Dortmund win5.40

Draw4.57

Bayern Munich win1.68

Over 2.51.40

Under 2.53.49

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals8%

Bayern Munich wins by more than 1 goals40%

Corners

Expected total corners9.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards2.8

2.5+ cards in the match54%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Dortmund

vs Sabah FK (away)Tue 20/10, 23:45 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs Eintracht FrankfurtSat 24/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27

Bayern Munich

vs ArsenalThu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
vs SC Freiburg (away)Sun 25/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27

Other matches on 23/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.