Dutch Eredivisie

FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard prediction

2 – 3

Full-time

Match summary

FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard (Dutch Eredivisie), 29/08/2026, finished 2-3: Fortuna Sittard won. Before the match Jarvis gave FC Groningen 63%, the draw 22% and Fortuna Sittard 15%; the actual result had a 15% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 3.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

FC Groningen

63%

Draw

22%

Fortuna Sittard

15%

Actual result: FC Groningen 2 – 3 Fortuna Sittard · Fortuna Sittard winJarvis gave this outcome: 15%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Groningen, negative favours Fortuna Sittard) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (FC Groningen - Fortuna Sittard)+1.19

Expected total goals3.17

Expected goals FC Groningen / Fortuna Sittard2.18 / 0.99

Both teams to score (yes / no)56.8% / 43.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 83.6%

Over 2.5 goals 61.4%

Over 3.5 goals 39.1%

First half

First-half result (FC Groningen / draw / Fortuna Sittard)46.7% / 38.1% / 15.2%

A goal in the first half74.8%

Two or more in the first half43.0%

Half-time then full-time

FC Groningen lead at half-time then FC Groningen win41.8%

Level at half-time then FC Groningen win19.4%

Level at half-time then draw12.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from FC Groningen's side

FC Groningen −2.031.5%

FC Groningen −1.7536.4%

FC Groningen −1.541.2%

FC Groningen −1.2546.8%

FC Groningen −1.052.3%

FC Groningen −0.7557.9%

FC Groningen −0.563.5%

FC Groningen −0.2568.9%

FC Groningen draw no bet (0.0)74.2%

FC Groningen +0.2579.6%

FC Groningen +0.585.0%

FC Groningen +0.7587.4%

FC Groningen +1.089.8%

FC Groningen +1.594.6%

FC Groningen +2.096.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

FC Groningen win1.58

Draw4.64

Fortuna Sittard win6.68

Over 2.51.63

Under 2.52.59

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

FC Groningen wins by more than 1 goals41%

Fortuna Sittard wins by more than 1 goals5%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 29/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.