Norwegian Eliteserien

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad prediction

1 – 4

Full-time

Match summary

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad (Norwegian Eliteserien), 31/08/2026, finished 1-4: Fredrikstad won. Before the match Jarvis gave Lillestrom 55%, the draw 25% and Fredrikstad 20%; the actual result had a 20% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 5 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Next for Lillestrom: Real Sociedad (Fri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Lillestrom

55%

Draw

25%

Fredrikstad

20%

Actual result: Lillestrom 1 – 4 Fredrikstad · Fredrikstad winJarvis gave this outcome: 20%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lillestrom, negative favours Fredrikstad) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Lillestrom - Fredrikstad)+0.80

Expected total goals2.94

Expected goals Lillestrom / Fredrikstad1.87 / 1.07

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.1% / 42.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.7%

Over 2.5 goals 56.4%

Over 3.5 goals 34.0%

First half

First-half result (Lillestrom / draw / Fredrikstad)40.2% / 41.6% / 18.2%

A goal in the first half71.9%

Two or more in the first half39.7%

Half-time then full-time

Lillestrom lead at half-time then Lillestrom win34.7%

Level at half-time then Lillestrom win18.2%

Level at half-time then draw15.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Lillestrom's side

Lillestrom −2.023.9%

Lillestrom −1.7528.1%

Lillestrom −1.532.4%

Lillestrom −1.2538.0%

Lillestrom −1.043.5%

Lillestrom −0.7549.1%

Lillestrom −0.554.6%

Lillestrom −0.2561.0%

Lillestrom draw no bet (0.0)67.4%

Lillestrom +0.2573.7%

Lillestrom +0.580.1%

Lillestrom +0.7583.1%

Lillestrom +1.086.1%

Lillestrom +1.592.1%

Lillestrom +2.094.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Lillestrom win1.83

Draw3.93

Fredrikstad win5.03

Over 2.51.77

Under 2.52.29

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Lillestrom wins by more than 1 goals32%

Fredrikstad wins by more than 1 goals8%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Lillestrom

vs Real SociedadFri 23/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27
vs Viktoria PlzenFri 06/11, 00:45 GMT+7 · Europa League 26-27

Other matches on 31/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.