English Premier League

Man City vs Bournemouth prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Man City vs Bournemouth (Premier League), 23/08/2026, finished 2-1: Man City won. Before the match Jarvis gave Man City 65%, the draw 20% and Bournemouth 15%; the actual result had a 65% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 3.3. Last 9 meetings: Man City won 7, 1 drawn, Bournemouth won 1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Man City

65%

Draw

20%

Bournemouth

15%

Actual result: Man City 2 – 1 Bournemouth · Man City winJarvis gave this outcome: 65% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Man City, negative favours Bournemouth) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Man City - Bournemouth)+1.26

Expected total goals3.31

Expected goals Man City / Bournemouth2.28 / 1.02

Both teams to score (yes / no)58.1% / 41.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 84.9%

Over 2.5 goals 64.2%

Over 3.5 goals 42.1%

First half

First-half result (Man City / draw / Bournemouth)48.3% / 36.2% / 15.5%

A goal in the first half76.6%

Two or more in the first half44.6%

Half-time then full-time

Man City lead at half-time then Man City win43.3%

Level at half-time then Man City win19.1%

Level at half-time then draw11.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Man City's side

Man City −2.033.2%

Man City −1.7538.1%

Man City −1.542.9%

Man City −1.2548.5%

Man City −1.054.0%

Man City −0.7559.5%

Man City −0.565.1%

Man City −0.2570.1%

Man City draw no bet (0.0)75.1%

Man City +0.2580.1%

Man City +0.585.1%

Man City +0.7587.5%

Man City +1.089.9%

Man City +1.594.6%

Man City +2.096.6%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Man City win1.54

Draw4.99

Bournemouth win6.72

Over 2.51.56

Under 2.52.79

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Man City wins by more than 1 goals43%

Bournemouth wins by more than 1 goals5%

Corners

Expected total corners10.7

6.5+ corners in the match50%

Cards

Expected total cards3.4

2.5+ cards in the match45%