Italian Serie A

Napoli vs Como prediction

1 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Napoli vs Como (Serie A), 30/08/2026, finished 1-2: Como won. Before the match Jarvis gave Napoli 37%, the draw 33% and Como 30%; the actual result had a 30% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.2.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Napoli

37%

Draw

33%

Como

30%

Actual result: Napoli 1 – 2 Como · Como winJarvis gave this outcome: 30%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Napoli, negative favours Como) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Napoli - Como)+0.14

Expected total goals2.22

Expected goals Napoli / Como1.18 / 1.04

Both teams to score (yes / no)47.0% / 53.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 67.2%

Over 2.5 goals 38.2%

Over 3.5 goals 18.4%

First half

First-half result (Napoli / draw / Como)27.4% / 49.6% / 23.0%

A goal in the first half61.6%

Two or more in the first half27.9%

Half-time then full-time

Level at half-time then draw22.4%

Napoli lead at half-time then Napoli win21.9%

Como lead at half-time then Como win17.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Napoli's side

Napoli −2.011.1%

Napoli −1.7513.9%

Napoli −1.516.7%

Napoli −1.2521.8%

Napoli −1.026.8%

Napoli −0.7531.9%

Napoli −0.537.0%

Napoli −0.2545.3%

Napoli draw no bet (0.0)53.6%

Napoli +0.2562.0%

Napoli +0.570.3%

Napoli +0.7574.7%

Napoli +1.079.1%

Napoli +1.587.8%

Napoli +2.092.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Napoli win2.71

Draw3.00

Como win3.37

Over 2.52.62

Under 2.51.62

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Napoli wins by more than 1 goals17%

Como wins by more than 1 goals12%

Corners

Expected total corners8.6

6.5+ corners in the match49%

Cards

Expected total cards2.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%