UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers

Partizan Belgrade vs Getafe prediction

2 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Partizan Belgrade vs Getafe (UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers), 28/08/2026, finished 2-1: Partizan Belgrade won. Before the match Jarvis gave Partizan Belgrade 28%, the draw 29% and Getafe 44%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 3 goals; Jarvis expected 2.4.

Next for Getafe: Rayo Vallecano (Tue 20/10, 02:00 GMT+7)

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Partizan Belgrade

28%

Draw

29%

Getafe

44%

Actual result: Partizan Belgrade 2 – 1 Getafe · Partizan Belgrade winJarvis gave this outcome: 28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Partizan Belgrade, negative favours Getafe) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Partizan Belgrade - Getafe)-0.34

Expected total goals2.43

Expected goals Partizan Belgrade / Getafe1.05 / 1.39

Both teams to score (yes / no)49.6% / 50.4%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 70.8%

Over 2.5 goals 43.9%

Over 3.5 goals 22.8%

First half

First-half result (Partizan Belgrade / draw / Getafe)22.3% / 45.4% / 32.3%

A goal in the first half65.9%

Two or more in the first half30.6%

Half-time then full-time

Getafe lead at half-time then Getafe win26.2%

Level at half-time then draw18.5%

Level at half-time then Getafe win16.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Partizan Belgrade's side

Partizan Belgrade −2.06.9%

Partizan Belgrade −1.758.8%

Partizan Belgrade −1.510.7%

Partizan Belgrade −1.2514.9%

Partizan Belgrade −1.019.1%

Partizan Belgrade −0.7523.3%

Partizan Belgrade −0.527.5%

Partizan Belgrade −0.2534.7%

Partizan Belgrade draw no bet (0.0)41.9%

Partizan Belgrade +0.2549.1%

Partizan Belgrade +0.556.3%

Partizan Belgrade +0.7561.9%

Partizan Belgrade +1.067.5%

Partizan Belgrade +1.578.8%

Partizan Belgrade +2.085.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Partizan Belgrade win3.64

Draw3.48

Getafe win2.29

Over 2.52.28

Under 2.51.78

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Partizan Belgrade wins by more than 1 goals11%

Getafe wins by more than 1 goals21%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Getafe

vs Rayo VallecanoTue 20/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27
vs Athletic Club (away)Sun 25/10, 20:00 GMT+7 · La Liga 26-27

Other matches on 28/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.