Portuguese Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Sporting Lisbon prediction

0 – 4

Full-time

Match summary

Rio Ave vs Sporting Lisbon (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 29/08/2026, finished 0-4: Sporting Lisbon won. Before the match Jarvis gave Rio Ave 10%, the draw 18% and Sporting Lisbon 72%; the actual result had a 72% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 0-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.9.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Rio Ave

10%

Draw

18%

Sporting Lisbon

72%

Actual result: Rio Ave 0 – 4 Sporting Lisbon · Sporting Lisbon winJarvis gave this outcome: 72% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rio Ave, negative favours Sporting Lisbon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Rio Ave - Sporting Lisbon)-1.52

Expected total goals2.91

Expected goals Rio Ave / Sporting Lisbon0.70 / 2.21

Both teams to score (yes / no)44.7% / 55.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 78.7%

Over 2.5 goals 55.7%

Over 3.5 goals 33.3%

First half

First-half result (Rio Ave / draw / Sporting Lisbon)11.6% / 35.9% / 52.5%

A goal in the first half73.1%

Two or more in the first half37.6%

Half-time then full-time

Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win48.5%

Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win20.7%

Level at half-time then draw11.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Rio Ave's side

Rio Ave −2.01.6%

Rio Ave −1.752.2%

Rio Ave −1.52.7%

Rio Ave −1.254.6%

Rio Ave −1.06.5%

Rio Ave −0.758.4%

Rio Ave −0.510.4%

Rio Ave −0.2514.8%

Rio Ave draw no bet (0.0)19.1%

Rio Ave +0.2523.5%

Rio Ave +0.527.9%

Rio Ave +0.7534.0%

Rio Ave +1.040.0%

Rio Ave +1.552.1%

Rio Ave +2.062.9%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Rio Ave win9.65

Draw5.70

Sporting Lisbon win1.39

Over 2.51.79

Under 2.52.26

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Rio Ave wins by more than 1 goals3%

Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals48%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 29/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.