Portuguese Primeira Liga

Sporting Lisbon vs Alverca prediction

3 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Sporting Lisbon vs Alverca (Portuguese Primeira Liga), 23/08/2026, finished 3-1: Sporting Lisbon won. Before the match Jarvis gave Sporting Lisbon 81%, the draw 13% and Alverca 7%; the actual result had a 81% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 3-0. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.3.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Sporting Lisbon

81%

Draw

13%

Alverca

Actual result: Sporting Lisbon 3 – 1 Alverca · Sporting Lisbon winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Sporting Lisbon, negative favours Alverca) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Sporting Lisbon - Alverca)+2.04

Expected total goals3.32

Expected goals Sporting Lisbon / Alverca2.68 / 0.64

Both teams to score (yes / no)43.8% / 56.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 84.2%

Over 2.5 goals 64.5%

Over 3.5 goals 42.4%

First half

First-half result (Sporting Lisbon / draw / Alverca)60.5% / 30.4% / 9.1%

A goal in the first half77.8%

Two or more in the first half43.7%

Half-time then full-time

Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win57.4%

Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win20.1%

Level at half-time then draw7.6%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Sporting Lisbon's side

Sporting Lisbon −2.048.6%

Sporting Lisbon −1.7554.2%

Sporting Lisbon −1.559.7%

Sporting Lisbon −1.2564.9%

Sporting Lisbon −1.070.2%

Sporting Lisbon −0.7575.4%

Sporting Lisbon −0.580.7%

Sporting Lisbon −0.2583.8%

Sporting Lisbon draw no bet (0.0)87.0%

Sporting Lisbon +0.2590.1%

Sporting Lisbon +0.593.3%

Sporting Lisbon +0.7594.6%

Sporting Lisbon +1.095.9%

Sporting Lisbon +1.598.5%

Sporting Lisbon +2.099.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Sporting Lisbon win1.24

Draw7.93

Alverca win14.88

Over 2.51.55

Under 2.52.81

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals60%

Alverca wins by more than 1 goals2%

Probability trajectory · full match

Other matches on 23/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.