English Premier League

Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction

4 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Brighton vs Aston Villa (Premier League), 23/08/2026, finished 4-0: Brighton won. Before the match Jarvis gave Brighton 43%, the draw 28% and Aston Villa 29%; the actual result had a 43% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-1. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 2.7. Last 10 meetings: Brighton won 2, 1 drawn, Aston Villa won 7.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Brighton

43%

Draw

28%

Aston Villa

29%

Actual result: Brighton 4 – 0 Aston Villa · Brighton winJarvis gave this outcome: 43% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brighton, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Brighton - Aston Villa)+0.31

Expected total goals2.72

Expected goals Brighton / Aston Villa1.51 / 1.21

Both teams to score (yes / no)55.8% / 44.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 76.6%

Over 2.5 goals 51.1%

Over 3.5 goals 29.0%

First half

First-half result (Brighton / draw / Aston Villa)32.6% / 43.4% / 24.0%

A goal in the first half69.6%

Two or more in the first half35.6%

Half-time then full-time

Brighton lead at half-time then Brighton win26.2%

Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win16.9%

Level at half-time then draw16.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Brighton's side

Brighton −2.015.4%

Brighton −1.7518.7%

Brighton −1.522.0%

Brighton −1.2527.3%

Brighton −1.032.6%

Brighton −0.7537.9%

Brighton −0.543.2%

Brighton −0.2550.1%

Brighton draw no bet (0.0)57.0%

Brighton +0.2563.9%

Brighton +0.570.8%

Brighton +0.7575.0%

Brighton +1.079.1%

Brighton +1.587.5%

Brighton +2.091.7%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Brighton win2.32

Draw3.62

Aston Villa win3.43

Over 2.51.96

Under 2.52.05

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Brighton wins by more than 1 goals22%

Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals13%

Corners

Expected total corners10.0

6.5+ corners in the match54%

Cards

Expected total cards3.8

2.5+ cards in the match53%