English Premier League

Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction

2 – 2

Full-time

Match summary

Newcastle vs Liverpool (Premier League), 23/08/2026, finished 2-2: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Newcastle 25%, the draw 26% and Liverpool 49%; the actual result had a 26% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 4 goals; Jarvis expected 3.1.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Newcastle

25%

Draw

26%

Liverpool

49%

Actual result: Newcastle 2 – 2 Liverpool · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Newcastle, negative favours Liverpool) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Newcastle - Liverpool)-0.57

Expected total goals3.11

Expected goals Newcastle / Liverpool1.27 / 1.84

Both teams to score (yes / no)62.1% / 37.9%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 83.2%

Over 2.5 goals 60.0%

Over 3.5 goals 37.7%

First half

First-half result (Newcastle / draw / Liverpool)21.7% / 41.4% / 36.9%

A goal in the first half73.5%

Two or more in the first half42.5%

Half-time then full-time

Liverpool lead at half-time then Liverpool win30.8%

Level at half-time then Liverpool win16.6%

Level at half-time then draw15.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Newcastle's side

Newcastle −2.07.3%

Newcastle −1.759.2%

Newcastle −1.511.0%

Newcastle −1.2514.5%

Newcastle −1.017.9%

Newcastle −0.7521.4%

Newcastle −0.524.9%

Newcastle −0.2531.4%

Newcastle draw no bet (0.0)37.9%

Newcastle +0.2544.4%

Newcastle +0.550.9%

Newcastle +0.7556.1%

Newcastle +1.061.3%

Newcastle +1.571.6%

Newcastle +2.079.4%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Newcastle win4.02

Draw3.84

Liverpool win2.04

Over 2.51.67

Under 2.52.50

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Newcastle wins by more than 1 goals11%

Liverpool wins by more than 1 goals28%

Corners

Expected total corners10.7

6.5+ corners in the match51%

Cards

Expected total cards4.2

2.5+ cards in the match41%

Probability trajectory · full match

Next fixtures of both teams

Newcastle

vs Aston VillaSat 17/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 41% / 27% / 31%
vs Crystal Palace (away)Sun 25/10, 21:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27

Liverpool

vs Brentford (away)Sat 17/10, 21:00 GMT+7 · Premier League 26-27Jarvis win / draw / loss: 33% / 28% / 38%
vs VillarrealWed 21/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27

Other matches on 23/08 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Premier League table, latest

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	6	+11	18
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton & Hove Albion	6	+13	13
...
8	Hull City	6	+2	9
9	Liverpool	6	0	9
10	Ipswich Town	6	-3	9
11	Newcastle United	6	-3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	-3	7

See the full Premier League table